Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Geekie wins 42.4% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 47.7% vs Novak 42.5% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 58.3%
Defensive zone
Novak 67.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.5%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 67.2%
32.8%
67.2%
Geekie
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Geekie
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Geekie
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (120)
40.4% (408)
+6.3%
Power Play
48.6% (35)
45.5% (33)
+3.1%
On even strength, Geekie has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Geekie is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (99).
Geekie shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Geekie
Novak
Home
46.8% (77)
42.0% (212)
Away
45.7% (81)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Geekie
Novak
P1
42.4%
41.9%
P2
49.1%
39.3%
P3
47.6%
42.1%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
35.4%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
46.0%▬
47.0%
46.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |