Scouting Report
Morgan Geekie holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Geekie wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Geekie 48.5% vs Novak 43.0% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 71.4%
Defensive zone
Geekie 59.8%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Geekie
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Geekie
Novak
Last 10: Geekie 4-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
2
3
Geekie
Novak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
2
3
Geekie
Novak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Geekie
1
0
Geekie
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Geekie
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (2,310)
41.8% (1,568)
+6.9%
Power Play
46.0% (189)
51.5% (134)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
45.7% (129)
50.0% (2)
-4.3%
On even strength, Geekie has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Geekie is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,927).
Geekie shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Geekie
Novak
Home
50.1% (1,283)
45.1% (831)
Away
46.8% (1,345)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Geekie
Novak
P1
48.6%
43.7%
P2
48.9%
42.8%
P3
47.7%
41.1%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
47.6%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Geekie
46.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 06:10 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 06:06 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 04:51 | Offensive | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 2 | 15:15 | Neutral | Morgan Geekie |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 05:59 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 06:30 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:59 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 02:42 | Defensive | Morgan Geekie |