Jonathan Marchessault vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Marchessault wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marchessault 42.3% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Marchessault leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Marchessault 50.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 91.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 60.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
11
(25 meetings)
14
11
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Last 10: Marchessault 2-8 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marchessault
5
1
Marchessault
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
6
Marchessault
MacKinnon
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marchessault
8
4
Marchessault
MacKinnon
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (1,441)
46.1% (11,264)
-4.7%
Power Play
44.3% (264)
53.2% (1,421)
-8.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
42.8% (502)
+1.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Marchessault is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (592).
Marchessault shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
Home / Away
Marchessault
MacKinnon
Home
42.6% (892)
49.7% (6,471)
Away
41.0% (822)
43.9% (6,717)
By Period
Marchessault
MacKinnon
P1
43.3%
47.4%
P2
42.2%
46.6%
P3
39.9%
46.1%
OT
42.3%
48.4%
Final 5 min
43.5%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marchessault
36.0%▲
32.5%
41.8%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 19:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2024 | 1 | 03:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:40 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 1 | 13:50 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2021 | 1 | 09:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 16, 2021 | 2 | 05:42 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 16, 2021 | 1 | 17:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 14, 2021 | 3 | 06:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 14, 2021 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 14, 2021 | 1 | 13:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Jonathan Marchessault |
| Feb 18, 2019 | 1 | 07:05 | Defensive | Jonathan Marchessault |