Who wins more faceoffs, Mathew Barzal or Nathan MacKinnon?

Mathew Barzal leads the head-to-head 5-3 across 8 faceoffs.

What is Mathew Barzal's faceoff record against Nathan MacKinnon?

Mathew Barzal is 5-3 against Nathan MacKinnon in head-to-head faceoffs. Zone breakdown: Offensive 0-2, Defensive 2-0, Neutral 3-1.

Who is predicted to win the next faceoff, Mathew Barzal or Nathan MacKinnon?

Nathan MacKinnon is the predicted winner with a 74.1% win probability based on historical stats and XGBoost ML analysis.

Mathew Barzal vs Nathan MacKinnon

Mathew BarzalR vs Nathan MacKinnonR

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head

2025-26 2024-25 2023-24 2022-23 2021-22 All Seasons

Scouting Report

Nathan MacKinnon holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barzal wins 43.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.

Prediction Breakdown

Model XGBoost ML Model

Overall FO% (Bayesian) Barzal 41.9% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (-10.8%)

H2H factor Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)

Offensive zone MacKinnon 83.5%

Defensive zone MacKinnon 63.7%

Neutral zone MacKinnon 74.5%

Result Nathan MacKinnon favored at 74.1%

25.9%

74.1%

Barzal MacKinnon

Head-to-Head Record

5 - 3 (8 meetings)

Barzal MacKinnon

Last 8: Barzal 5-3 MacKinnon

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone

Edge: MacKinnon

Barzal MacKinnon

2 total

Defensive Zone

Edge: Barzal

Barzal MacKinnon

2 total

Neutral Zone

Edge: Barzal

Barzal MacKinnon

4 total

Situation Matchup

Situation

Barzal

MacKinnon

Edge

Even Strength

40.9% (469)

49.7% (1,038)

-8.8%

Power Play

34.2% (38)

63.7% (157)

-29.5%

Penalty Kill

28.6% (7)

34.4% (32)

-5.8%

On power play, MacKinnon has a +29.5% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness

MacKinnon shoots right. Barzal is 43.1% vs right-shot opponents (116).

Barzal shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).

Home / Away

Barzal

MacKinnon

Home

39.2% (250)

53.1% (618)

Away

41.3% (264)

49.1% (609)

By Period

Barzal

MacKinnon

46.3%

49.3%

36.7%

53.0%

38.5%

50.7%

0.0%

66.7%

Final 5 min

41.1%

56.7%

Recent Form

Player

Last 50

Last 200

Career

Barzal

44.0%▬

45.0%

40.3%

MacKinnon

44.0%▼

50.5%

51.1%

Recent Faceoffs

Date	Period	Time	Zone	Winner
Nov 16, 2025	2	17:34	Offensive	Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 16, 2025	2	17:25	Defensive	Mathew Barzal
Nov 16, 2025	2	07:13	Neutral	Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 16, 2025	2	04:32	Neutral	Mathew Barzal
Nov 16, 2025	1	19:49	Offensive	Nathan MacKinnon
Nov 16, 2025	1	17:14	Neutral	Mathew Barzal
Nov 16, 2025	1	02:44	Defensive	Mathew Barzal
Nov 16, 2025	1	00:27	Neutral	Mathew Barzal

Barzal's Profile | MacKinnon's Profile