Nathan MacKinnon vs Nick Schmaltz
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 65.3%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 53.9%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 56.5%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
45.9% (697)
+3.8%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
47.9% (117)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
48.0% (25)
-13.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
MacKinnon shoots right. Schmaltz is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Home
53.1% (618)
44.9% (434)
Away
49.1% (609)
47.7% (405)
By Period
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
P1
49.3%
41.5%
P2
53.0%
46.7%
P3
50.7%
51.1%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:59 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |