Nathan MacKinnon vs Nick Schmaltz
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (68% H2H, 19 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Schmaltz 42.6% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 25-19 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 58.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 86.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 69.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 70.9%
70.9%
29.1%
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
19
(44 meetings)
25
19
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
4
9
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
8
4
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
13
6
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
41.3% (3,431)
+4.8%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
47.3% (655)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
47.4% (135)
-4.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
MacKinnon shoots right. Schmaltz is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,172).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
Home
49.7% (6,471)
42.8% (2,114)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
42.0% (2,107)
By Period
MacKinnon
Schmaltz
P1
47.4%
41.3%
P2
46.6%
42.8%
P3
46.1%
43.1%
OT
48.4%
42.4%
Final 5 min
49.1%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:59 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:43 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:46 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 1 | 18:10 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 13:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 03:33 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 14, 2022 | 3 | 01:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 10:42 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 12, 2021 | 3 | 00:26 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 2 | 05:08 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 1 | 12:39 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 1 | 07:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 1 | 04:41 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 1 | 04:31 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 16:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |