Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Sturm 53.6% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 56.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 93.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 71.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
MacKinnon
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
MacKinnon
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
54.6% (271)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
54.4% (90)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Sturm
Home
53.1% (618)
53.0% (168)
Away
49.1% (609)
56.0% (193)
By Period
MacKinnon
Sturm
P1
49.3%
58.2%
P2
53.0%
53.2%
P3
50.7%
52.3%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |