Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (90% H2H, 20 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Sturm 56.1% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 27-11 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 93.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 77.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 93.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 90.5%
90.5%
9.5%
MacKinnon
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
27
(38 meetings)
11
27
MacKinnon
Sturm
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
8
3
MacKinnon
Sturm
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
6
MacKinnon
Sturm
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
18
MacKinnon
Sturm
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
57.1% (2,719)
-11.0%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
61.3% (62)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
51.0% (498)
-8.2%
On even strength, Sturm has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Sturm
Home
49.7% (6,471)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
MacKinnon
Sturm
P1
47.4%
56.5%
P2
46.6%
54.9%
P3
46.1%
57.4%
OT
48.4%
60.6%
Final 5 min
49.1%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 2 | 13:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 15:58 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 13:06 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 07:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 1 | 18:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 1 | 16:37 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 14, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 4, 2023 | OT | 00:20 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 2 | 09:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 12:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 01:22 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |