Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Bäck 48.7% (+4.8%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.0%
Defensive zone
Bäck 64.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
MacKinnon
Bäck
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
51.2% (43)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
27.3% (11)
+7.1%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bäck is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (27).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bäck
Home
53.1% (618)
71.4% (21)
Away
49.1% (609)
30.3% (33)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bäck
P1
49.3%
45.5%
P2
53.0%
56.5%
P3
50.7%
22.2%
Final 5 min
56.7%
36.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Bäck
44.0%▼
52.0%
46.3%