Scouting Report
Oskar Bäck holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bäck on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Bäck shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.7% vs Bäck 51.0% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Result
Oskar Bäck favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
MacKinnon
Bäck
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
MacKinnon
Bäck
Last 6: MacKinnon 1-5 Bäck
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bäck
1
4
MacKinnon
Bäck
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bäck
0
1
MacKinnon
Bäck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bäck
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (11,051)
56.2% (162)
-10.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (499)
32.5% (40)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bäck shoots left. MacKinnon is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,367).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bäck is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bäck
Home
49.6% (6,342)
52.6% (95)
Away
43.9% (6,603)
50.5% (107)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bäck
P1
47.4%
47.4%
P2
46.5%
52.7%
P3
45.9%
53.7%
Final 5 min
48.9%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.7%
Bäck
46.0%▼
52.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:51 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:16 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:24 | Neutral | Oskar Bäck |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 14:07 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 13:32 | Defensive | Oskar Bäck |