Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 52.0%). Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Zacha 51.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 69.4%
Defensive zone
Zacha 72.2%
Neutral zone
Zacha 51.5%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
MacKinnon
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
MacKinnon
Zacha
Last 8: MacKinnon 4-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
MacKinnon
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
53.0% (700)
-3.3%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
54.1% (109)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
39.2% (74)
-4.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Zacha is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Zacha
Home
53.1% (618)
51.6% (438)
Away
49.1% (609)
52.4% (445)
By Period
MacKinnon
Zacha
P1
49.3%
57.0%
P2
53.0%
48.9%
P3
50.7%
50.5%
OT
66.7%
42.1%
Final 5 min
56.7%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:53 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |