Nathan MacKinnon vs Pavel Zacha
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Zacha 49.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 23-23 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 51.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
MacKinnon
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
23
(46 meetings)
23
23
MacKinnon
Zacha
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
12
5
MacKinnon
Zacha
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
6
13
MacKinnon
Zacha
19 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
MacKinnon
Zacha
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
48.9% (5,156)
-2.8%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
55.7% (813)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
42.2% (557)
+0.6%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,560).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Zacha
Home
49.7% (6,471)
49.7% (3,381)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
48.6% (3,145)
By Period
MacKinnon
Zacha
P1
47.4%
49.9%
P2
46.6%
49.2%
P3
46.1%
48.2%
OT
48.4%
53.5%
Final 5 min
49.1%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:53 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 17:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 07:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:44 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:09 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 03:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2 | 00:51 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |