Nathan MacKinnon vs Phillip Danault
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Phillip Danault holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Danault 54.5% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Danault leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 68.0%
Defensive zone
Danault 82.0%
Neutral zone
Danault 57.3%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
MacKinnon
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
MacKinnon
Danault
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
1
MacKinnon
Danault
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
0
2
MacKinnon
Danault
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Danault
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
56.2% (745)
-6.5%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
45.1% (51)
+18.6%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
51.6% (124)
-17.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Danault is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (302).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Danault
Home
53.1% (618)
56.7% (402)
Away
49.1% (609)
53.7% (518)
By Period
MacKinnon
Danault
P1
49.3%
55.5%
P2
53.0%
54.2%
P3
50.7%
55.2%
OT
66.7%
55.6%
Final 5 min
56.7%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Danault
50.0%▼
54.5%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 05:51 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 00:28 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:41 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 11:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 06:27 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |