Nathan MacKinnon vs Robert Thomas
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Thomas 51.9% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.0%
Defensive zone
Thomas 72.0%
Neutral zone
Thomas 63.6%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
MacKinnon
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
MacKinnon
Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Thomas
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Thomas
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
50.3% (652)
-0.6%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
61.5% (104)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
54.2% (120)
-19.8%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
MacKinnon shoots right. Thomas is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Thomas
Home
53.1% (618)
52.0% (400)
Away
49.1% (609)
52.3% (476)
By Period
MacKinnon
Thomas
P1
49.3%
49.6%
P2
53.0%
55.4%
P3
50.7%
51.0%
OT
66.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.7%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 02:22 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |