Nathan MacKinnon vs Robert Thomas
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on neutral-zone draws (59% H2H, 41 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Thomas 51.6% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 56-43 in 99 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 68.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 77.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 71.4%
71.4%
28.6%
MacKinnon
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
43
-
56
(99 meetings)
43
56
MacKinnon
Thomas
Last 10: MacKinnon 5-5 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
12
16
MacKinnon
Thomas
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
14
16
MacKinnon
Thomas
30 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
17
24
MacKinnon
Thomas
41 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
51.1% (5,387)
-5.0%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
55.8% (927)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
50.2% (697)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
MacKinnon shoots right. Thomas is 54.5% vs right-shot opponents (2,044).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Thomas
Home
49.7% (6,471)
50.9% (3,484)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
52.3% (3,527)
By Period
MacKinnon
Thomas
P1
47.4%
50.7%
P2
46.6%
53.0%
P3
46.1%
50.8%
OT
48.4%
59.2%
Final 5 min
49.1%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 02:22 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 14:33 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 06:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 02:46 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:44 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 04:07 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:01 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 17:02 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:09 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 07:03 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |