Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Poehling
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Poehling 48.0% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 86.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 81.4%
Neutral zone
Poehling 54.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
MacKinnon
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
MacKinnon
Poehling
Last 10: MacKinnon 8-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
1
MacKinnon
Poehling
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
7
MacKinnon
Poehling
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
50.4% (680)
-0.7%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
58.3% (12)
+5.4%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
38.8% (219)
-4.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Poehling is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Poehling
Home
53.1% (618)
47.4% (422)
Away
49.1% (609)
48.1% (489)
By Period
MacKinnon
Poehling
P1
49.3%
53.3%
P2
53.0%
40.3%
P3
50.7%
50.0%
OT
66.7%
40.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 04:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 02:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 06:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:47 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |