Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Poehling
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 16 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Poehling 48.3% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 17-16 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 68.4%
Neutral zone
Poehling 58.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
MacKinnon
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
16
(33 meetings)
17
16
MacKinnon
Poehling
Last 10: MacKinnon 8-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
14
2
MacKinnon
Poehling
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
10
MacKinnon
Poehling
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
4
MacKinnon
Poehling
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
49.6% (2,780)
-3.5%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
51.6% (93)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
41.7% (635)
+1.1%
On even strength, Poehling has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Poehling is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,151).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Poehling
Home
49.7% (6,471)
49.3% (1,706)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
47.2% (1,802)
By Period
MacKinnon
Poehling
P1
47.4%
50.8%
P2
46.6%
47.1%
P3
46.1%
47.2%
OT
48.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 04:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | OT | 02:41 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 18:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 16:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 06:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:49 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 12:06 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 05:47 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 07:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:51 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:37 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:21 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 18, 2024 | 2 | 09:43 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |