Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Strome 45.9% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 79.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 53.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 70.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
MacKinnon
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
MacKinnon
Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Strome
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
45.4% (315)
+4.3%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
35.7% (28)
+28.0%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.0% (4)
-15.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +28.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
MacKinnon shoots right. Strome is 41.2% vs right-shot opponents (97).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Strome
Home
53.1% (618)
42.6% (188)
Away
49.1% (609)
47.2% (159)
By Period
MacKinnon
Strome
P1
49.3%
38.6%
P2
53.0%
48.4%
P3
50.7%
46.2%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.7%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 12:18 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 18:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |