Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Strome
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Strome shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Strome 44.6% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 18-13 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 61.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 61.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 61.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
MacKinnon
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
13
(31 meetings)
18
13
MacKinnon
Strome
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
5
MacKinnon
Strome
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
5
6
MacKinnon
Strome
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
2
MacKinnon
Strome
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
44.2% (6,887)
+1.9%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
49.2% (855)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
41.5% (410)
+1.3%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
MacKinnon shoots right. Strome is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (2,379).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Strome
Home
49.7% (6,471)
44.4% (4,077)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
44.8% (4,075)
By Period
MacKinnon
Strome
P1
47.4%
43.9%
P2
46.6%
45.4%
P3
46.1%
44.4%
OT
48.4%
46.3%
Final 5 min
49.1%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Strome
50.0%▲
45.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 12:18 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 18:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 3 | 05:32 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 10:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:32 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 03:07 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 20, 2024 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 19:47 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 11:07 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 3 | 07:53 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 15:57 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 10:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:07 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:24 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:39 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 16:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |