Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 45.9% vs Gagner 47.5% (-1.3%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 69.3%
Defensive zone
Gagner 61.7%
Neutral zone
Gagner 52.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
MacKinnon
Gagner
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (755)
51.3% (158)
-5.5%
Power Play
48.3% (60)
66.7% (36)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
27.6% (29)
33.6% (110)
-6.0%
On power play, Gagner has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gagner is 54.7% vs right-shot opponents (64).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gagner
Home
49.5% (396)
53.2% (154)
Away
41.7% (448)
40.0% (150)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gagner
P1
50.2%
35.6%
P2
43.8%
52.7%
P3
41.4%
51.9%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.0%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
45.4%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%