Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +16.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Gagner 52.4% (-16.3%)
Offensive zone
Gagner 52.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 73.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 53.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
MacKinnon
Gagner
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
76.5% (17)
-31.0%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
28.6% (7)
+27.8%
On even strength, Gagner has a +31.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gagner is 66.7% vs right-shot opponents (6).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gagner
Home
47.8% (670)
75.0% (16)
Away
44.6% (644)
37.5% (8)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gagner
P1
45.3%
25.0%
P2
48.5%
64.3%
P3
45.0%
83.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
70.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.2%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
62.5%