Nathan MacKinnon vs Sebastian Aho
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 50.5%). Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Aho 50.5% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 53.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 53.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 53.5%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
MacKinnon
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
9
(19 meetings)
10
9
MacKinnon
Aho
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
MacKinnon
Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
MacKinnon
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
5
MacKinnon
Aho
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
50.5% (878)
-0.8%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
53.5% (144)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
44.3% (61)
-9.9%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Aho
Home
53.1% (618)
53.8% (571)
Away
49.1% (609)
46.9% (512)
By Period
MacKinnon
Aho
P1
49.3%
49.0%
P2
53.0%
51.7%
P3
50.7%
50.3%
OT
66.7%
58.8%
Final 5 min
56.7%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 06:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:26 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 09:55 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 09:45 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:31 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |