Nathan MacKinnon vs Sidney Crosby
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sidney Crosby holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Crosby 55.1% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 53.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
MacKinnon
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
MacKinnon
Crosby
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Crosby
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
1
3
MacKinnon
Crosby
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
2
3
MacKinnon
Crosby
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
53.3% (1,025)
-3.6%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
64.7% (249)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
60.0% (15)
-25.6%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +25.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Crosby is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Crosby
Home
53.1% (618)
56.9% (675)
Away
49.1% (609)
54.1% (614)
By Period
MacKinnon
Crosby
P1
49.3%
55.1%
P2
53.0%
53.1%
P3
50.7%
58.5%
OT
66.7%
54.2%
Final 5 min
56.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 11:07 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 05:51 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:24 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 13:54 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |