Nathan MacKinnon vs Steven Stamkos
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 53.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 58.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Last 5: MacKinnon 2-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
MacKinnon
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
57.1% (368)
-7.4%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
55.2% (96)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.0% (10)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
MacKinnon shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Home
53.1% (618)
53.9% (230)
Away
49.1% (609)
59.0% (244)
By Period
MacKinnon
Stamkos
P1
49.3%
56.7%
P2
53.0%
54.1%
P3
50.7%
59.2%
OT
66.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
56.7%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:33 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |