Nathan MacKinnon vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 20 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 27-17 in 44 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 81.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 76.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 76.8%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 78.7%
78.7%
21.3%
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
27
(44 meetings)
17
27
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
5
15
MacKinnon
Stamkos
20 total
Defensive Zone
Even
5
5
MacKinnon
Stamkos
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
MacKinnon
Stamkos
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
50.5% (9,825)
-4.4%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
55.2% (1,729)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
49.6% (827)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
MacKinnon shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,601).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Stamkos
Home
49.7% (6,471)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
MacKinnon
Stamkos
P1
47.4%
49.2%
P2
46.6%
52.7%
P3
46.1%
50.9%
OT
48.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 13:33 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 13:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 05:57 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 13:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 04:25 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 3 | 00:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 19:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 27, 2023 | 1 | 17:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 2 | 05:26 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:18 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 1 | 03:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |