Scouting Report
Tim Washe holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Washe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Washe 54.9% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 72.1%
Defensive zone
Washe 88.7%
Neutral zone
Washe 69.8%
Result
Tim Washe favored at 59.9%
40.1%
59.9%
MacKinnon
Washe
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
MacKinnon
Washe
Last 7: MacKinnon 4-3 Washe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Washe
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Washe
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Washe
0
1
MacKinnon
Washe
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Washe
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,029)
59.2% (250)
-9.5%
Power Play
64.3% (154)
100.0% (3)
-35.7%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
41.8% (55)
-7.4%
On power play, Washe has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Washe shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (876).
MacKinnon shoots right. Washe is 67.4% vs right-shot opponents (89).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Washe
Home
53.1% (606)
62.0% (129)
Away
49.1% (609)
52.5% (179)
By Period
MacKinnon
Washe
P1
49.4%
57.7%
P2
52.8%
60.4%
P3
50.8%
53.4%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.6%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
51.1%
Washe
50.0%▼
57.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Tim Washe |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |