Scouting Report
Tim Washe holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Washe shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Washe 54.8% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 66.3%
Defensive zone
Washe 88.7%
Neutral zone
Washe 76.0%
Result
Tim Washe favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
MacKinnon
Washe
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
MacKinnon
Washe
Last 7: MacKinnon 4-3 Washe
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Washe
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Washe
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Washe
0
1
MacKinnon
Washe
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Washe
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,255)
58.9% (258)
-12.8%
Power Play
53.2% (1,418)
100.0% (3)
-46.8%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
41.8% (55)
+1.0%
On power play, Washe has a +46.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Washe shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,527).
MacKinnon shoots right. Washe is 66.3% vs right-shot opponents (92).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Washe
Home
49.7% (6,459)
62.0% (129)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
52.4% (187)
By Period
MacKinnon
Washe
P1
47.4%
58.0%
P2
46.6%
59.1%
P3
46.1%
53.7%
OT
48.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
57.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
46.8%
Washe
50.0%▼
57.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:57 | Offensive | Tim Washe |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 05:44 | Defensive | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 13:11 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Tim Washe |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |