Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Meier 48.0% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Meier 54.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 52.7%
Neutral zone
Meier 50.3%
Result
Timo Meier favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
MacKinnon
Meier
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
MacKinnon
Meier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Meier
0
1
MacKinnon
Meier
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Meier
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Meier
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
41.1% (95)
+8.6%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
65.4% (26)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.0% (2)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Meier has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Meier shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Meier is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Meier
Home
53.1% (618)
40.4% (57)
Away
49.1% (609)
51.5% (66)
By Period
MacKinnon
Meier
P1
49.3%
34.0%
P2
53.0%
50.9%
P3
50.7%
60.9%
Final 5 min
56.7%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Meier
48.0%▲
45.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:05 | Offensive | Timo Meier |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |