Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Meier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Meier 44.0% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Meier 67.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 68.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.1%
Result
Timo Meier favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
MacKinnon
Meier
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
MacKinnon
Meier
Last 8: MacKinnon 4-4 Meier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Meier
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Meier
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Meier
0
2
MacKinnon
Meier
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Meier
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
41.3% (470)
+4.8%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
51.5% (103)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
35.7% (14)
+7.1%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Meier shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Meier is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Meier
Home
49.7% (6,471)
43.2% (280)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
42.7% (307)
By Period
MacKinnon
Meier
P1
47.4%
43.3%
P2
46.6%
44.7%
P3
46.1%
40.4%
OT
48.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
38.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Meier
48.0%▲
45.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:05 | Offensive | Timo Meier |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:54 | Offensive | Timo Meier |
| Apr 5, 2018 | 1 | 19:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 3 | 06:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 1 | 18:39 | Neutral | Timo Meier |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Timo Meier |