Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. MacKinnon wins 43.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 43.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 87.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 89.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 90.0%
10.0%
90.0%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
MacKinnon
Hertl
Last 5: MacKinnon 4-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
0
MacKinnon
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
MacKinnon
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (743)
54.7% (570)
-10.3%
Power Play
35.7% (70)
55.2% (143)
-19.5%
Penalty Kill
25.9% (27)
54.5% (77)
-28.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (646).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
46.4% (394)
56.2% (379)
Away
40.1% (446)
53.5% (411)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
44.4%
53.4%
P2
38.2%
52.7%
P3
46.4%
57.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.1%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
43.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 11:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 08:18 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |