Nathan MacKinnon vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (66% H2H, 64 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Hertl 54.3% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 85-46 in 131 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 89.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 87.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 92.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 90.2%
90.2%
9.8%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
46
-
85
(131 meetings)
46
85
MacKinnon
Hertl
Last 10: MacKinnon 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
12
23
MacKinnon
Hertl
35 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
12
20
MacKinnon
Hertl
32 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
22
42
MacKinnon
Hertl
64 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
53.9% (8,303)
-7.8%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
59.2% (1,995)
-6.0%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
46.3% (806)
-3.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
49.7% (6,471)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
47.4%
53.6%
P2
46.6%
54.2%
P3
46.1%
55.3%
OT
48.4%
46.9%
Final 5 min
49.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 13:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 06:12 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 16:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 12:56 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 08:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 16:31 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 14:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 12:40 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |