Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Hertl 57.5% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 56.0%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 63.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 58.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
MacKinnon
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
MacKinnon
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
MacKinnon
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
MacKinnon
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
58.7% (858)
-9.0%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
55.8% (285)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
62.9% (35)
-28.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Hertl
Home
53.1% (618)
60.1% (599)
Away
49.1% (609)
56.1% (579)
By Period
MacKinnon
Hertl
P1
49.3%
52.4%
P2
53.0%
63.9%
P3
50.7%
58.5%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2025 | 3 | 13:24 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |