Nathan MacKinnon vs Tomas Nosek
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Nosek 53.6% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.5%
Defensive zone
Nosek 82.9%
Neutral zone
Nosek 68.3%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
MacKinnon
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
MacKinnon
Nosek
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
2
MacKinnon
Nosek
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
3
MacKinnon
Nosek
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
MacKinnon
Nosek
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
54.9% (2,710)
-8.8%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
45.8% (48)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
47.2% (428)
-4.4%
On even strength, Nosek has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Nosek is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,227).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Nosek
Home
49.7% (6,471)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
MacKinnon
Nosek
P1
47.4%
52.2%
P2
46.6%
54.1%
P3
46.1%
54.7%
OT
48.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 1 | 12:21 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 3 | 04:04 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 2 | 11:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 27, 2021 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 19:52 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 08:55 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 16:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 27, 2017 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |