Nathan MacKinnon vs Trent Frederic
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Trent Frederic holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Frederic 54.7% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.7%
Defensive zone
Frederic 62.1%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 67.7%
67.7%
32.3%
MacKinnon
Frederic
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
MacKinnon
Frederic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frederic
0
1
MacKinnon
Frederic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Frederic
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
57.6% (151)
-7.9%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
66.7% (3)
-3.0%
On even strength, Frederic has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frederic shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
MacKinnon shoots right. Frederic is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Frederic
Home
53.1% (618)
55.6% (81)
Away
49.1% (609)
60.3% (73)
By Period
MacKinnon
Frederic
P1
49.3%
57.7%
P2
53.0%
54.3%
P3
50.7%
60.7%
Final 5 min
56.7%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Frederic
58.0%▲
54.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Trent Frederic |