Nathan MacKinnon vs Trent Frederic
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.8% vs 46.5%). Look for Frederic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). MacKinnon wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Frederic shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Frederic 46.8% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Frederic leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.6%
Defensive zone
Frederic 51.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
MacKinnon
Frederic
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
MacKinnon
Frederic
Last 10: MacKinnon 3-7 Frederic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
MacKinnon
Frederic
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frederic
0
4
MacKinnon
Frederic
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Frederic
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Frederic
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
46.3% (909)
-0.2%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
63.3% (30)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
35.5% (31)
+7.3%
On power play, Frederic has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frederic shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (9,537).
MacKinnon shoots right. Frederic is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Frederic
Home
49.7% (6,471)
47.6% (485)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
45.4% (485)
By Period
MacKinnon
Frederic
P1
47.4%
41.9%
P2
46.6%
48.0%
P3
46.1%
49.8%
OT
48.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Frederic
58.0%▲
54.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:39 | Offensive | Trent Frederic |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 16:20 | Defensive | Trent Frederic |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 3 | 06:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 1 | 18:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 1 | 18:08 | Defensive | Trent Frederic |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:51 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:46 | Neutral | Trent Frederic |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 1 | 13:19 | Defensive | Trent Frederic |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 1 | 19:23 | Offensive | Trent Frederic |
| Feb 21, 2022 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Trent Frederic |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Trent Frederic |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |