Nathan MacKinnon vs Wyatt Johnston
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.0% vs Johnston 48.0% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 52.6%
Defensive zone
Johnston 69.3%
Neutral zone
Johnston 61.5%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 59.7%
40.3%
59.7%
MacKinnon
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
MacKinnon
Johnston
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
1
MacKinnon
Johnston
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
5
MacKinnon
Johnston
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
MacKinnon
Johnston
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (1,038)
47.3% (666)
+2.4%
Power Play
63.7% (157)
50.7% (69)
+13.0%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
51.4% (35)
-17.0%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +17.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
MacKinnon shoots right. Johnston is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Johnston
Home
53.1% (618)
47.5% (364)
Away
49.1% (609)
48.0% (406)
By Period
MacKinnon
Johnston
P1
49.3%
49.4%
P2
53.0%
46.9%
P3
50.7%
47.1%
OT
66.7%
47.1%
Final 5 min
56.7%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 10:50 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 06:46 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:07 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |