Nathan MacKinnon vs Wyatt Johnston
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Johnston 49.0% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 29-18 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 71.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 57.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 59.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
MacKinnon
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
29
(47 meetings)
18
29
MacKinnon
Johnston
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
6
9
MacKinnon
Johnston
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
2
9
MacKinnon
Johnston
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
10
11
MacKinnon
Johnston
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,264)
49.1% (2,232)
-3.0%
Power Play
53.2% (1,421)
52.5% (179)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
44.7% (237)
-1.9%
On even strength, Johnston has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (3,651).
MacKinnon shoots right. Johnston is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (648).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Johnston
Home
49.7% (6,471)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
MacKinnon
Johnston
P1
47.4%
50.0%
P2
46.6%
48.1%
P3
46.1%
48.6%
OT
48.4%
51.5%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:32 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:26 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 10:50 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 06:46 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:07 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:39 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |