Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Duchene 51.8% vs Kadri 47.3% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 80.2%
Defensive zone
Duchene 84.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 71.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 80.0%
80.0%
20.0%
Duchene
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Duchene
Kadri
Last 5: Duchene 4-1 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Duchene
Kadri
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
0
Duchene
Kadri
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
0
Duchene
Kadri
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Duchene
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (366)
46.9% (848)
+4.2%
Power Play
61.5% (65)
48.8% (86)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
38.5% (13)
-21.8%
On penalty kill, Kadri has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Duchene shoots left. Kadri is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (609).
Home / Away
Duchene
Kadri
Home
51.7% (201)
46.5% (495)
Away
52.5% (236)
47.6% (452)
By Period
Duchene
Kadri
P1
49.0%
52.6%
P2
57.1%
48.9%
P3
49.2%
40.1%
OT
60.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.9%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Kadri
34.0%▼
38.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:48 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:59 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |