Scouting Report
Nazem Kadri holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Kadri wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 46.9% vs Novak 42.5% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 60.0%
Defensive zone
Novak 52.2%
Neutral zone
Novak 53.8%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Kadri
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Kadri
Novak
Last 7: Kadri 3-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Kadri
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kadri
Novak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kadri
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (866)
40.4% (408)
+6.1%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
45.5% (33)
+3.3%
On even strength, Kadri has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kadri is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Kadri shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Kadri
Novak
Home
45.8% (513)
42.0% (212)
Away
47.6% (452)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Kadri
Novak
P1
52.4%
41.9%
P2
48.5%
39.3%
P3
39.7%
42.1%
OT
44.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.6%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
32.0%▼
35.5%
46.6%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 16:43 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 07:22 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 00:57 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 07:03 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |