Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.0% vs 47.8%). Look for Johnston on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Kadri wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.3% vs Johnston 48.0% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 70.2%
Defensive zone
Johnston 56.8%
Neutral zone
Kadri 55.2%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 58.6%
58.6%
41.4%
Kadri
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Kadri
Johnston
Last 7: Kadri 2-5 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kadri
Johnston
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
3
Kadri
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (848)
47.3% (666)
-0.4%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
50.7% (69)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
51.4% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Kadri is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
Kadri shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Kadri
Johnston
Home
46.5% (495)
47.5% (364)
Away
47.6% (452)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Kadri
Johnston
P1
52.6%
49.4%
P2
48.9%
46.9%
P3
40.1%
47.1%
OT
44.4%
47.1%
Final 5 min
47.0%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
34.0%▼
38.0%
47.0%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:33 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:49 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 14:42 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:09 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 19:09 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |