Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.8% vs 49.5%). Dickinson wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dickinson 49.9% vs Dowd 49.5% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dickinson 62.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 62.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 53.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Dickinson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Dickinson
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Dickinson
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dickinson
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dickinson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (503)
53.4% (485)
-1.5%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
0.0% (2)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
40.5% (111)
39.8% (186)
+0.7%
On power play, Dickinson has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Dickinson is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Dickinson shoots left. Dowd is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (428).
Home / Away
Dickinson
Dowd
Home
49.0% (345)
48.5% (307)
Away
50.9% (273)
50.3% (366)
By Period
Dickinson
Dowd
P1
43.9%
50.7%
P2
57.3%
49.1%
P3
47.2%
49.6%
OT
60.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dickinson
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.8%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 13:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |