Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Dowd 48.8% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 63.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 51.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 58.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Backlund
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Backlund
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (930)
51.2% (666)
-1.1%
Power Play
51.5% (66)
0.0% (2)
+51.5%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (293)
41.5% (224)
+6.3%
On power play, Backlund has a +51.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Backlund is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (363).
Backlund shoots left. Dowd is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (566).
Home / Away
Backlund
Dowd
Home
48.1% (636)
48.5% (466)
Away
51.1% (653)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Backlund
Dowd
P1
45.2%
48.4%
P2
54.2%
46.8%
P3
48.8%
51.3%
OT
55.6%
30.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
46.0%▼
48.5%
49.7%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |