Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Marner wins 41.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.0% vs Dowd 48.8% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 86.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.3%
Neutral zone
Marner 51.5%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Marner
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marner
Dowd
Last 5: Marner 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Marner
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Marner
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (302)
51.2% (666)
-9.8%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
0.0% (2)
+40.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
41.5% (224)
-16.5%
On power play, Marner has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Marner is 41.2% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Marner shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Marner
Dowd
Home
36.6% (172)
48.5% (466)
Away
45.6% (147)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Marner
Dowd
P1
40.8%
48.4%
P2
40.5%
46.8%
P3
41.0%
51.3%
Final 5 min
39.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.8%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 04:15 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 08:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |