Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 50.7%). Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (95% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.6% vs Dowd 50.7% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 27-15 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 86.7%
Defensive zone
Frost 52.3%
Neutral zone
Frost 55.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Frost
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
15
(42 meetings)
27
15
Frost
Dowd
Last 10: Frost 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
20
1
Frost
Dowd
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
9
Frost
Dowd
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Frost
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (3,652)
52.3% (6,036)
-2.6%
Power Play
55.4% (632)
56.1% (164)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (40)
44.1% (1,638)
+10.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,481).
Frost shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Frost
Dowd
Home
51.4% (2,101)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
49.8% (2,223)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Frost
Dowd
P1
51.2%
51.5%
P2
51.3%
50.4%
P3
48.8%
50.3%
OT
64.9%
45.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
68.0%▲
63.0%
50.6%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:44 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2 | 10:48 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 1 | 06:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 15:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 07:56 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 13:34 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 12:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 14, 2023 | OT | 04:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |