Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Foligno 49.9% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 75.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 61.8%
Neutral zone
Foligno 59.2%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 64.6%
35.4%
64.6%
Dowd
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Dowd
Foligno
Last 6: Dowd 4-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Foligno
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
49.5% (291)
+1.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
55.8% (43)
-55.8%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
47.2% (53)
-5.7%
On power play, Foligno has a +55.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Foligno is 46.4% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Dowd
Foligno
Home
48.2% (471)
48.9% (178)
Away
48.8% (426)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Dowd
Foligno
P1
48.3%
43.0%
P2
46.8%
55.9%
P3
51.0%
50.0%
OT
30.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.0%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 15:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |