Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Foligno 48.6% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 91.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 64.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Dowd
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
4
(13 meetings)
9
4
Dowd
Foligno
Last 10: Dowd 6-4 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
3
Dowd
Foligno
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
0
Dowd
Foligno
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
1
Dowd
Foligno
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
48.3% (2,840)
+4.0%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
52.3% (731)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
44.0% (457)
+0.1%
On even strength, Dowd has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Dowd shoots right. Foligno is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,518).
Home / Away
Dowd
Foligno
Home
51.9% (3,917)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
47.2% (2,017)
By Period
Dowd
Foligno
P1
51.5%
47.8%
P2
50.4%
50.5%
P3
50.3%
48.2%
OT
45.9%
29.7%
Final 5 min
50.4%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 10:40 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 15:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 15:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 04:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 2 | 15:22 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 9, 2019 | 1 | 09:19 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 12, 2018 | 2 | 18:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 12, 2018 | 2 | 17:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 25, 2016 | 2 | 16:18 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |