Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 71.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 88.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
46.0% (250)
+5.0%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
70.6% (17)
-70.6%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
31.8% (22)
+9.7%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +70.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
48.2% (471)
50.3% (175)
Away
48.8% (426)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
48.3%
48.5%
P2
46.8%
45.9%
P3
51.0%
46.5%
OT
30.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |