Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.5% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.7% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 69.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 56.6%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (485)
47.6% (189)
+5.8%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
100.0% (2)
-100.0%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (186)
29.4% (17)
+10.4%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +100.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Dowd is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (428).
Dowd shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (76).
Home / Away
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
48.5% (307)
48.5% (132)
Away
50.3% (366)
43.4% (76)
By Period
Dowd
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
50.7%
51.4%
P2
49.1%
41.3%
P3
49.6%
48.5%
OT
30.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |