Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.5% vs 47.7%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Poehling 48.0% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poehling 57.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 58.5%
Neutral zone
Poehling 61.3%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Dowd
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Dowd
Poehling
Last 8: Dowd 5-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
0
Dowd
Poehling
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
3
Dowd
Poehling
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
50.4% (680)
+0.6%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
58.3% (12)
-58.3%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
38.8% (219)
+2.7%
On power play, Poehling has a +58.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Dowd is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Dowd shoots right. Poehling is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Dowd
Poehling
Home
48.2% (471)
47.4% (422)
Away
48.8% (426)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Dowd
Poehling
P1
48.3%
53.3%
P2
46.8%
40.3%
P3
51.0%
50.0%
OT
30.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 06:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 06:33 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |