Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.6% vs Carrick 54.2% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Dowd 59.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 71.3%
Neutral zone
Dowd 58.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
Dowd
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Dowd
Carrick
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Dowd
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
3
Dowd
Carrick
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (671)
55.5% (470)
-4.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
66.7% (3)
-66.7%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (224)
50.0% (58)
-8.5%
On power play, Carrick has a +66.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Carrick is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (144).
Home / Away
Dowd
Carrick
Home
48.2% (471)
58.6% (261)
Away
48.8% (426)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Dowd
Carrick
P1
48.3%
55.9%
P2
46.8%
53.5%
P3
51.0%
55.6%
OT
30.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.0%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:53 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |