Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Carrick 52.2% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 76.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 61.4%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.6%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Dowd
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Dowd
Carrick
Last 10: Dowd 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
Dowd
Carrick
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Carrick
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
7
5
Dowd
Carrick
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (6,036)
52.2% (2,544)
+0.1%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
61.3% (75)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,638)
50.8% (435)
-6.7%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Dowd shoots right. Carrick is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (843).
Home / Away
Dowd
Carrick
Home
51.9% (3,917)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
49.5% (3,922)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Dowd
Carrick
P1
51.5%
51.8%
P2
50.4%
52.3%
P3
50.3%
52.6%
OT
45.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.4%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 13:53 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:09 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 08:40 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:57 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 07:59 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 2 | 11:28 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 15:13 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |